The Prime Minister announced that Malaysia economy is out of recession, that 4Q 2009 registered a 4.5% increase in GDP.
What does this means to the ordinary Malaysian?
The main street is still suffering from haunted inflation coming with pending increare in pump prices, electricity tariff, and threats from privatized water company to force the Selangor state government to approve its revised tariff or to pay RM300million compensation.
In short, the ordinary people still struggle to earn enough for their basic needs even before the pending increase in prices and tariff.
When refer to the latest Consumer Price Index, CPI for Dec 2009 is 0.2%, while unemployment is posted as 3.6%.
Based on the statistics, Malaysia is really doing good.
But, do you feel it?
The 4Q 2009 GDP growth may be attributed to greater export demand, especially to US, since US records 4% increase for the same quarter.
Can this sustain? I do not know. The US better than expected growth was, to many economists, is due to government stimulus package, bailout of big banks and automotive industry, and partly due to replenishment of inventory for the holiday season.
If this is true, we may see a softer growth or worse, a U-turn for US GDP for 1Q 2010 since situation does not realy improve based on ordinary economic activities but intervention of authority in the form of stimulus and bailout, and chronically motivated growth in 4Q 2009, ie holidays.
How will this impact Malaysia? US is the single largest buyer for our export goods, and Malaysia economy is export oriented. If US goes south, we will sink together, lesser export means lesser production means fewer job opportunity.
Even if US are on track as President Obama claimed for its recovery, and Malaysia tags on US economy and achieved 5% growth for 2010, the ordinary Malaysian will still face a great challenge right in-front of them: INFLATION.
Thus, the GDP growth may be offset by greater increase in cost of living. This is enough to put almost all lower and middle income group in a state where keeping themselves going is too big a task to swallow.
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哈哈哈大马的官方数字永远是笑话的元素。
ReplyDelete大马国情不一样，cpi应该不只是苹果和橙，还有西柚，也就是说，应该分成官方的，民间的，和政客的。
当官方公布是0.2%的时候，民间实际的出血增加程度应该是2%，或12%，甚至20%（我经常用一公斤糖价涨10仙市面的咖啡奶茶就一杯涨10仙，面类饭类也是如此来作比较。）
政客的世界就更不用说。15年前买一个区会主席要花600万马币，现在的行情大概是2000万，如果人均gdp的增长率跟它平行的话，大马人民早已经超越老美，真的boleh咯。
在大马，除了印在自己银行帐本的数字是真的之外，其他的，嘿嘿嘿，看看笑笑就好了。
如果银行本子是马币嘛，就要提心吊胆，分分钟会变成香蕉币！
ReplyDelete变成香蕉币？不会很远，油田被吸干的那一天就是了。
ReplyDelete内需不足外销无力，高科技产品搞不出，低价位的输给邻国，迷糊的“一个大马”概念来代替中长期策略，无疑就是跟外资说byebye。
再过两三代，不要说用香蕉币，分分钟三餐都是吃蕉。
油田？早被吸干了！
ReplyDelete